Broadview Buzz

I Told You So

2009-03-28T14:13:00.000-07:00

Back in November I suggested that you all throw some money at a handful of stocks. I believe I suggested a couple of grand each. How have all of your portfolios fared since then? Here are the results:

	28-Nov-08	27-Mar-09	% Change	$2000
TDC.V - Tyhee Development Corp - gold	.35	.52	49%	2971
FAN.TO - Farralon Resources - gold	.14	.19	36%	2714
STM.V - Strathmore minerals - uranium	.24	.39	63%	3250
MFL.TO - Minefinders - gold	5.39	9.49	76%	3521
KBR.TO - Kimber Reources - gold	.75	.71	-5%	1893
IPT.V - Impact Silver - silver	.35	.52	49%	2971
				$17,322
			Increase	44%

So I am feeling pretty smug now! I also got lucky on another stock I did not include in the November list .. Souther Arc Minerals. I bought 20,000 shares at a nickel, and it is now at 40 cents. Man I wish I had bought more!

This gold thing is for real. You can see the US dollar is becoming weaker these days as The Fed prints trillions of dollars. You may not see it in the US Dollar Index, which is a silly indicator of the US dollar's value. The way to see the value of the US dollar or any currency is to watch the inverse of the price of gold in that currency. Sure there is volatility in the price of gold. That's why you should use the gold price as an indicator of a currency's value over the long term. You would be well advised to get some actual gold bullion, both in coin form at home and through our excellent mutual fund, the BMG BullionFund. You should also get some gold and silver mining stocks. And maybe some platinum and uranium stocks too.

Wall Street

2009-03-26T05:36:00.000-07:00

It's a movie starring Michael Douglas. It's a financial district in New York City. It's a subway station. It also represents the focus of anger these days over the current economic mess, and with cause.

I want to tell everyone about two things that will make you mad. One is a 24-minute online video showing how nefarious entities sent into bankruptcy two Wall Street brokerages. The other is a Rolling Stone article summarizing the whole mess, particularly regarding insurance giant AIG.

I am sickened by all of this. As someone in the investment industry, I have long been embarrassed to be associated with some of my colleagues. I now am sick to death of how the gluttons of Wall Street have taken the US down a perilous path, one they may not recover from. Everyone needs to know the information in this video and article. The people need need this information to start a revolution, really. That may sound dramatic, but it may be the only way to fix it.

Here's the video:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=3532&mn=33302&pt=msg&mid=6892335

And here's the article: (it's long)

Print version: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/print

Read online version: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover

Call me Doctor Doom if you like. But I think we all need to understand this stuff so that we can fix it. At least .. Americans need to.

Unintended Consequences

2009-01-14T04:53:00.000-08:00

Read this right-on article about unintended consequences of major events in the 20th century. Pay particular attention to the bit about how and why the US Congress simply doesn't work. Methinks they need to revamp their political system.

The author is James Quinn, who is Senior Director of Strategic Planning, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He ain't no slouch or lame blogger.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/quinn/2009/0105.html

Robert Kennedy, Jr. - Fairness Doctrine and more

2008-12-28T07:27:00.000-08:00

I recently found a video of Robert Kennedy Jr. speaking about the Fairness Doctrine, a piece of US legislation enacted in 1928 and repealed by Ronald Reagan in 1988. This incredible video confirmed in my mind the wisdom of being a liberal. He says, "the domination of business by government is called Communism, and the domination of government by business is called Fascism, and what we need to do is to walk that narrow trail in between, which is free-market capitalism and democracy". Truer words were never spoke.

Spend 20 minutes and watch this amazing man.

http://ronpaulnews.net/2008/06/rfk-jr-on-fairness-doctrine-and.html

Looking for the Bottom

2008-11-29T09:42:00.000-08:00

Everyone is looking for the bottom so they can pile back into financial sector stocks, it seems. It is not easy to recognize the bottom when you're at it. Understanding the fundamentals is a good place to start. Why has the stock market fallen so much? Did the credit crisis lead to the stock market decline? That seems to be intuitively true. BMO's chief economist Donald Coxe has some answers that I believe in. A link to one of his posts appears at the bottom of this one.

Coxe tells us that the Fed engineered this credit crisis, probably inadvertently. When they signalled to the world that they would save Fannie and Freddie this August, they caught the hedge funds off-guard, who were long commodities and short the banks. They were also highly leveraged, some of them 50-1. So these hedge funds had to unwind their positions, which led to declining stock prices. We're talking about a lot of money here, likely in the trillions. They have been selling commodity stocks, commodity futures, and covering their shorts on the banks. This has sent virtually everything down. I wonder if Bernanke really saw this coming.

Oil is at $55. That is insane. Peak Oil is real. Peak Oil is a theory that suggests not that we are running out of oil. It suggests that world-wide oil production is in or near decline, and that demand continues to grow, especially in developing nations like China and India. Many of the largest oil fields are producing less and less oil, and new discoveries are no where near the annual consumption. In fact .. the last year that we discovered as much oil as we consume worldwide was 1985. Again .. we're not running out of oil. But we can't get it out of the ground fast enough to satisfy demand. The only remedy to that is increasing prices.

So what caused the oil price to hit $147 earlier this year? Was it speculators? Well there are almost always speculators in markets. Hedge funds likely were major speculators in the oil market, and their exit from this speculation is likely the cause of not only oil's decline, but the cause of all markets declining. Or one of the causes.

I suggest that we are at or near the bottom of the chart for oil. Maybe it stays here around $50 for a while. Or maybe it will head up. I believe somewhat intuitively that oil will get back to the $150 range within a year. There is a Canadian mutual fund that you can purchase (minimum $5,000) that goes up twice as much as the oil price does. So if oil goes up 3 times from $50 to $150, this fund goes up 6 times. Your $5,000 investment would go up 6 times to $30,000. I am not a qualified investment advisor. But I believe this is a great opportunity. Look for the Horizon Betapro Oil Bull fund. We're in it. Okay Tracey is. I'm cheering her on.

I also believe there are some terrific buying opportunities in the stock market, particularly in precious metals mining stocks. I will list here a few ticker codes. I recommend them all and I already own them all. I just wish I had more money to invest in them at these low prices.

TDC.V - Tyhee Development Corp - gold
FAN.TO - Farralon Resources - gold
STM.V - Strathmore minerals - uranium
MFL.TO - Minefinders - gold
KBR.TO - Kimber Reources - gold
IPT.V - Impact Silver - silver

Throw a couple of grand at each of those and come back in March. Feel free to come back to this post in March and see how these things have done since this post on November 28, 2008. I will accept your praise or criticism.

Read Donald Coxe at: http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/10/13/donald-coxe-%E2%80%93-homeicide-the-crime-of-the-century/

Understand the Economy!

2008-11-29T09:14:00.000-08:00

Through work I have come across an amzing presentation that explains so much about the economy, energy, and the environment, and how they interact. This 3-hour+ online presentation can be seen in chunks of your choosing ..it's separated into 20 chapters. I highly recommend that everyone in the world sees this. Really. The information is so valuable, you will exclaim, "Amazing" when you finish it. Go to this link:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

You won't regret it.